Uranium mining equities have fallen despite long-term fuel prices reaching their strongest levels in more than 18 years, MINING.COM reported, as financing constraints and operating costs overshadow expectations of tighter supply. The VettaFi Global Uranium Mining Index declined 16% in September and the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners Index dropped 22%, while spot uranium prices changed little.
The disconnect reflects financial pressures rather than fuel-market conditions alone. In an analysis dated 28 October, Sprott market strategist Paul Wong said reduced liquidity could increase capital costs, depress equity valuations and postpone recognition of future project value. Higher uranium prices do not remove the permitting, funding and construction hurdles that developers must clear before adding production.
Fitch Solutions’ BMI forecasts average spot prices of $95 per lb. next year, against $88 this year, supported by potential Kazakh supply constraints and increased utility buying, according to MINING.COM. However, BMI expects global mine output to increase 7.8% this year, producing a modest surplus after accounting for secondary supplies, stockpiling and financial purchases. It anticipates a deficit next year, suggesting future scarcity rather than an immediate shortage is underpinning long-term pricing.
TradeTech’s long-term indicator remained at $97 per lb. between June and September, $13 above its year-earlier level. Utilities were looking for deliveries starting as soon as 2027 and running into the late 2030s. BMI expects natural uranium purchasing to strengthen in 2027–28 and projects annual reactor requirements growth averaging 4.1% over 2026–35, compared with 3.3% for mine output. China’s reactor building programme is the principal demand driver.
Kazakhstan remains a supply uncertainty. BMI said commissioning of Kazatomprom’s sulphuric acid plant had slipped to between the third quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028 after palaeontological discoveries at the site. Although Kazatomprom does not expect a material mining impact, BMI forecasts lower Kazakh production next year, citing acid availability and the producer’s emphasis on value rather than volume.
Company results underline the operating pressures. Cameco’s third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation were C$267 million, 44% below BMO Capital Markets’ forecast, with weaker sales and higher unit costs contributing. Cameco also reduced the upper end of its annual production guidance and raised cost-of-sales expectations. Meanwhile, NexGen’s Rook I project targets first ore in the third quarter of 2030, illustrating the long lead times before new mines can address projected shortages.