Sub-Saharan LNG exports forecast to rise 175% as buyers look beyond Hormuz

Sub-Saharan Africa’s LNG exports could reach 98 billion cubic metres by 2034, nearly 175% above the 35.7 billion cubic metres shipped in 2024, according to a Fitch forecast cited by OilPrice.com. The outlet reports that buyers seeking alternatives to supplies exposed to the Strait of Hormuz are turning towards African gas, supported by new infrastructure and floating liquefaction projects.

The investment outlook extends beyond LNG. OilPrice.com cites African Energy Chamber projections of roughly $40 billion in annual upstream investment through 2030, taking continental hydrocarbon production to 12.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Ivory Coast are expected to receive the biggest shares. Domestic consumption is also supporting infrastructure development, with African gas demand projected to increase by 60% by 2050.

Mozambique accounts for several major prospective additions. Construction resumed in January at TotalEnergies’ $20 billion Mozambique LNG development after a four-and-a-half-year force majeure was lifted. The 13.1 million-tonne-a-year facility is about 45% complete, according to the report. Eni’s $7.2 billion Coral North floating LNG project targets commercial operations in 2028, bringing Mozambique’s operational floating liquefaction capacity to 7 million tonnes annually. Separately, ExxonMobil has increased its working interest in Rovuma LNG to 50% through an asset swap with Eni, with a final investment decision targeted for late 2026.

In Nigeria, the Train 7 expansion is expected to raise Nigeria LNG’s capacity to 30 million tonnes a year from 2027. OilPrice.com reports that NNPC Ltd and its upstream partners signed 20-year agreements last year to supply NLNG with 1.29 billion standard cubic feet of feedgas daily, with extension options. Fiscal measures targeting onshore and shallow-water non-associated gas developments are intended to strengthen domestic supply.

Senegal and Mauritania’s shared Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project has entered commercial operations following its first LNG shipment in April 2025. Its initial annual capacity is 2.5 million tonnes, with a second phase targeting 5 million tonnes. Tanzania’s proposed $42 billion Lindi LNG development remains less advanced: negotiations on commercial terms, taxation and revenue sharing are largely complete, but a Host Government Agreement and parliamentary approval are still outstanding, OilPrice.com reports.