Disruption to energy and fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz risks widening into a global food-security crisis, OilPrice.com reported, citing an S&P Global Institute assessment. The institute warned that agriculture faces several simultaneous pressures as conflict in Ukraine and the US-Israeli war in Iran unsettle trade routes carrying fuel and essential farming inputs.
The exposure extends beyond oil and gas cargoes. According to OilPrice.com, half of global fertiliser feedstock exports moved through Hormuz before the military offensive in Iran began in February. The outlet reported that fertiliser prices doubled after the waterway closed to almost all shipping on 28 February. Nitrogen-based fertilisers underpin production of staple crops including maize, wheat and rice, leaving food supplies vulnerable to interruptions in the availability of their inputs.
A recovery in vessel movements would not necessarily bring an immediate recovery in fertiliser output. OilPrice.com said shipping had resumed but that control of the strait remained contested and disruption persisted. Citing Semafor, it reported that fertiliser producers would have to wait for Gulf natural gas production to recover before feedstock supplies could be restored, a process potentially taking months or years.
S&P identified two further connections between energy prices and food costs: diesel raises farmers’ operating expenses, while demand for biofuel feedstocks can encourage them to shift acreage away from food production. Its assessment also highlighted El Niño-related weather risks alongside higher energy and fertiliser costs and sustained biofuel-linked demand, adding another source of pressure on agricultural markets.
OilPrice.com cited the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook as projecting a 10% rise in fertiliser prices by year-end, contributing to food-cost increases of 5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, with regional differences. S&P said low-income countries were particularly exposed because food accounts for roughly half of household expenditure. The report presented a global food crisis as a risk rather than a certainty, while warning that rising costs and hunger could aggravate instability.