Copper’s Comex premium over London Metal Exchange prices has narrowed, while aluminium has surrendered its Middle East supply risk premium, according to OilPrice.com’s account of Standard Chartered’s metals outlook. The bank expects copper to remain elevated through the rest of 2026, supported by supply constraints and uncertainty over US tariffs, but sees improving aluminium availability weighing on prices.
Standard Chartered raised its annual average copper forecasts to $13,674 a tonne for 2026 and $13,210 for 2027, from $13,472 and $12,875 respectively. Copper has gained 16% this year, while the nearby LME spread has largely remained in backwardation since July. The unresolved US review of copper tariffs remains a central risk: refined imports have so far been exempt, and the Trump administration has yet to clarify whether that will change.
Exchange stocks show a persistent geographical imbalance. OilPrice.com reported record Comex inventories of 790,400 tonnes, with stockbuilding accelerating since mid-September. Total LME copper inventories continued falling in October, although on-warrant stocks rose to 140,000 tonnes, their highest in a month. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks remained low. China’s Yangshan import premium reached $137 a tonne, its strongest level since November 2022, signalling firm spot demand.
For aluminium, Standard Chartered cut its average price forecasts to $3,249 a tonne in 2026 and $3,001 in 2027, from $3,318 and $3,199. Prices closed below $3,000 on 14–15 October for the first time this year before recovering above that threshold in the following session. The retreat brought prices back to pre-conflict levels, as Chinese and Indonesian production growth, Chinese semi-finished exports and European smelter restarts eased supply concerns.
That repricing has not removed the physical obstacles facing Gulf supply. OilPrice.com said full restoration of Gulf Cooperation Council output remained uncertain, with disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs and logistical difficulties on alternative routes. Chinese unwrought aluminium and semi-finished exports nevertheless rose 25.9% year on year in September to 656,000 tonnes, providing additional availability outside the Gulf.
Aluminium’s curve and regional premiums offer a less uniform picture than its outright price decline. After sustained nearby LME backwardation from March to June, the spread has alternated between modest backwardation and contango. Physical premiums have retreated from record and multi-year peaks but remain elevated, leaving regional delivery conditions firmer than the disappearance of the outright supply-risk premium might suggest.