Venezuela’s oil trade has shifted towards more identifiable destinations under revised US authorisations, but the reopening has not removed the need for detailed tanker and cargo checks, according to a Kpler report published by Hellenic Shipping News. The report argues that permission to trade depends increasingly on the applicable licence, the counterparties involved and the vessel’s operating history, rather than destination or sanctions-list screening alone.
Kpler figures cited in the report put average Venezuelan crude exports at about 870,000 barrels a day in 2025 despite tighter policy. Shipments dropped to roughly 667,000 b/d in January 2026, a disruption the report says cannot be explained by a single factor. Exports subsequently recovered, averaging around 1.14 million b/d from April to September. The figures illustrate the report’s distinction between restrictions on commercial participation and their immediate effect on physical oil supply.
The policy sequence began with a US announcement on 26 February 2025 winding down energy-related authorisations, followed by licences that extended the joint-venture wind-down into late May. A March executive order introduced a discretionary 25% tariff mechanism for countries importing Venezuelan oil, while a restricted licence restored some operations in July. The report describes a controlled reopening through further licences after the January 2026 US operation that removed Nicolás Maduro, with additional amendments in August and September.
Trade routes changed alongside those permissions. China and unidentified destinations dominated in 2022, whereas the US was the largest identified destination in 2026, ahead of India and Spain. Kpler recorded more than 560 Venezuelan crude trades involving 189 vessels in 2026. Unidentified discharge locations, movements through the Bahamas and Curaçao, and ship-to-ship transfers nevertheless remained areas requiring cargo-specific scrutiny, the report said.
For traders and transport counterparties, the report cautions against treating Automatic Identification System signals as conclusive evidence. Missing transmissions can reflect technical or coverage problems, and ship-to-ship transfers can serve legitimate operational purposes. Suspected anomalies should instead be checked against cargo origins, previous voyages, ownership, sanctions exposure and satellite imagery. Tankers can also move between Venezuelan and other high-risk trades, making a single voyage an incomplete basis for assessment. The report presents these combined checks as grounds for enhanced due diligence, not as legal findings.