Potential US sanctions relief for tankers could draw vessels away from Russian oil exports and into Middle Eastern trades, increasing Russian freight costs while relieving shortages around the Strait of Hormuz. Hellenic Shipping News, carrying a Platts report, said Energy Secretary Chris Wright had outlined plans to let legitimate businesses buy sanctioned ships for unrestricted trading, although Washington had not published a detailed proposal.
The capacity available for such a switch may be limited. BRS Shipbrokers counted 148 deepsea tankers sanctioned exclusively by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control as of 19 October, representing 2.5% of the global fleet by vessel number. Location data suggested only 14 had been inactive for more than three months. Most potential candidates were already working in likely sanctioned trades, chiefly Russian clean petroleum products, meaning relief would largely redistribute ships rather than add unused capacity.
Earnings differentials provide an incentive to move. According to Platts assessments cited in the report, average medium-range tanker time-charter-equivalent earnings on the Baltic–East Coast South America route were $15,518.14 a day below the Global Clean Tanker Medium Range Index over 1–16 October. Gibson Shipbrokers said Russian export freight rates could rise if vessels shifted towards Middle Eastern employment, although a brief waiver could discourage charterers from booking longer voyages.
Gibson estimated that 84% of US-only sanctioned tankers were in the Middle East, Indian Ocean or East Asia, against just 16 ships in European waters. It identified Hormuz shuttle work as their most likely destination following attacks that had restricted tanker availability. Platts assessed freight for a 265,000-tonne crude cargo from the Persian Gulf to western India at $95.83 per tonne on 19 October, compared with $19.15 on 27 February before the conflict.
Strong secondhand values could also encourage owners to sell, provided buyers received adequate assurances over vessels’ earlier trading histories, BRS said. Xclusiv Shipbrokers valued a 15-year-old VLCC at $160 million, up 177% over a year, and a similarly aged Suezmax at $92 million, up 127%.
Legal relief would not resolve operational barriers. Gibson said 70% of OFAC-listed tankers were at least 20 years old, while insurance, classification and charterer vetting could restrict mainstream acceptance. Continuing UK and EU restrictions would add uncertainty. S&P Global Energy Horizons analyst Fotios Katsoulas expected the realistically transferable fleet to be substantially smaller than the sanctioned total. INTERTANKO also stressed that removing sanctions would not itself improve vessel safety, calling for scrutiny of condition, insurance and ownership.