Russian Arctic oil shipments to Asia rise as shipping chokepoints disrupt trade

Russia is expanding oil and LNG deliveries to Asia through the Northern Sea Route as disruptions to established shipping corridors reshape energy trade, OilPrice.com reports. The outlet links the shift to the US-Israeli war on Iran and interruptions around the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, which have constrained traditional Persian Gulf supply routes.

Citing Reuters, OilPrice.com puts Russian oil shipments through the Arctic corridor at 20 million barrels during the July-to-mid-October navigation window in 2026, nearly 50% above the previous season’s 13 million barrels. Traders quoted in the report expect another 5 million to 10 million barrels before the navigation period closes. The seasonal window coincides with the annual minimum in Arctic sea ice.

The freight calculation involves a shorter passage but greater expense and danger. OilPrice.com gives the Arctic route’s length as 13,947 kilometres, against 20,921 kilometres through Suez, and says it can shorten voyages to markets including China and India by up to two weeks. Disruptions affecting Suez, Hormuz and the Black Sea have increased its appeal, while the corridor also offers Russian exporters an alternative to European waters, where tankers have faced detention.

Record tanker freight rates are meanwhile altering Asian crude procurement, according to the report. Bottlenecks and delays, including ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz, have encouraged buyers to use smaller vessels and ships secured under long-term charters. OilPrice.com also says higher transport costs are pushing Asian refiners to look for alternative supplies from the Middle East and Latin America.

Russia’s northern production projects, including Rosneft’s Vostok Oil and expanded Arctic LNG operations, are feeding larger volumes into Asian supply chains, the outlet reports. Citing Reuters, it says Gazprom Neft plans to raise Northern Sea Route shipments by 35% from 2025. President Vladimir Putin reportedly forecast that annual cargo turnover on the route would double to 70 million tonnes by 2030.

The Arctic expansion sits alongside established Russian export channels. China receives just under 1 million barrels a day through overland infrastructure, while eastern Pacific ports have supplied up to 90% of its seaborne Russian crude in recent months, according to OilPrice.com. India remains dependent on tanker deliveries to refining centres including Jamnagar, Vadinar and Paradip.