Rhine disruption leaves ARA fuel oil stocks higher as inland supply tightens

Low Rhine water levels have disrupted inland fuel oil logistics, leaving coastal stocks higher while inland European consumers face physical supply shortages, according to Alkagesta Market Insights. Its October 2026 outlook describes a widening disconnect between fuel oil availability in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) and the ability to move products through the river network. The reported disruption comes as inland markets approach the fourth-quarter heating season, with supplies accumulating at coastal ports rather than reaching consumers further inland.

Alkagesta reports a water-level reading of minus 5 cm at the Kaub chokepoint on 1 October and 0 cm on 2 October. The company characterises conditions along the Upper Rhine as severe enough to halt barge navigation. It identifies Shell Rheinland, with refining capacity of 190,000 barrels a day, and MiRO Karlsruhe, at 316,000 barrels a day, as major inland refining complexes affected by the disruption. According to the report, barge loadings have been reduced by as much as a third; it does not quantify any associated reduction in refinery processing.

Against that logistical backdrop, Alkagesta puts ARA fuel oil inventories at 961,000 tonnes and reports an 18.5% week-on-week increase. Separately, it cites stocks of 842,000 tonnes in its 8 September fuel oil outlook as an earlier comparison. The company attributes the coastal accumulation of heavy refined products to the inland transport bottleneck, saying the latest figures reinforce the coastal-inland supply disconnect identified in that previous report.

The figures and market assessment are presented as Alkagesta’s analysis, rather than independently verified findings. The company says its outlook combines internal assessments with publicly available external information, and that some numerical material is derived from or informed by S&P Global Platts publications. It also cautions that forward-looking expectations may differ from actual outcomes and provides no assurance that the information is accurate or complete. Source: Alkagesta Market Insights, https://alkagesta.com/fuel-oil-market-outlook-october-2026/.